I highlighted some of the more interesting months. Looks like December has a nice strong long bias to it; much more consistent direction than any of the other months at 80% positive. Of course, I wouldn't trade any of this by itself.
EDIT: (new chart using IMF.org's data found here. Assumes purchase at first day of listed month and sale at first day of following month. This data goes back to November 1998 rather than 1990. Many thanks to Sanz Prophet for pointing at the mistake! Currently getting my hands on some better forex data! :D)
The above is not meant to be trading advice. Furthermore, past results are not necessarily indicative of future returns. And, as seen in the earlier version of this post, there is no guarantee that the data is accurate.

You might want to check this technical analysis program: http://www.cognitum-research.com/en/wave-explorer
ReplyDeleteI like the Cognitum Updater. I've been meaning to get more historical data...I'll have to give the Wave-Explorer a try soon too.
ReplyDeleteDoes the table translate to 'buy' first day of month "sell" last day of month? It looks like it should be shifted by 1 month (i.e., Dec is 'good', Jan is 'bad' for the eur).
ReplyDeleteLooks like you're right, Sanz Prophet. I should've checked my data against another source before publishing. I think the data has a few other errors in it as well. I'll convert some tried and true minute data to monthly data and go from there.
ReplyDeleteThank you.
I enjoy you site, a lot by the way. Especially the Python and python/IB code is extremely helpful. Not many examples out there.Keep up the good work.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the compliments Sanz Prophet! Anyway, I got some data from IMF.org. Hopefully the above chart is a more accurate representation of EURUSD seasonal price movement.
ReplyDelete