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Monday, July 30, 2012

Charts and Cliff-Hanger Analysis

Can it really be that easy? No. No, it can’t. Of  course, I can’t make any comments on anything but what I see (which appears rather like an advertisement for the premium service that they offer), I have to say what I see appears somewhat misleading.

Now, I know—it is merely a short post exhibiting an interesting result, a result that seems to hold well enough for profit.  What really gets me is the lack of a legitimate disclaimer. And the question at the end. I suppose Bespoke is looking to start conversation. Maybe. Or they’re just not interested in sharing their information. Which is mostly likely the case.

I should be grateful for the small insight they are providing. Of course, I would love to see the data and the process they used to form the chart (which, yes, I could probably do on my own). But, I also would like to see something commenting on the divergence at the beginning of the year (January to April) and what some of the other presidential years looked like. Again, I’m not paying for anything from them, so what can I expect? (Maybe I’ll post some of my own analysis…if I have time).

I guess what really gets me is that I don’t believe this is enough information to go by to make a good decision to go long at the current moment.

And, now that I look at the graph (and the axes labels) I am slightly confused. But with a quick comparison to the SPX's current return anyone could sort that out...

Oh well. An interesting chart in the least--as long as you do your due diligence. 

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